Thursday, February 22, 2007

Global warming rationality

It has always seemed to me to matter not a jot whether the present, apparent, warming of the climate was due to carbon dioxide emissions or not. The reality is that sooner or later the oil would run out. In any case, burning fossil fuels, whether in power stations or motor cars, is basically antiquated technology. Guaranteeing continuity of supply is also going to be dodgy politically unless you are sitting on top of lakes of oil or mountains of easily accessible coal.

It is also, in my humble opinion, irrational to generate electricity in a limited number of centralised plants, and then waste a large percentage of what you produce in distribution. Equally stupid is the current fad for boasting that bio-diesel or ethanol will make up 10% or so of your company's fuel use as both M & S and Tesco have recently. This is just a bit of green window dressing in order to promote a caring image.

I don't know the figures, but the percentage efficiency of growing and harvesting a suitable crop, transporting the harvested product, processing, which would require pressing to remove oil or fermenting and distilling to obtain ethanol, combining the result with diesel or petrol and then distributing the result again must be abysmally low.

I can remember, probably 20 odd years ago, coming across some research that looked at the surface area of all the buildings in, I think, Leeds. A calculation showed that even with the then solar power technology that was available, it would provide all the power needs of the city.

The problem has been, and still is, that the capital cost of generating electricity via solar power is too high. For my own purposes I calculated whether the cost of installing solar panels on my roof would provide savings greater than the amount I would receive in interest if I invested the money. It was very apparent that I would be much better off putting my money in an average building society account rather than lashing out c. £18,000 for the solar installation.

I was grateful to have my attention drawn to this item in the Telegraph. It is to the shame of the paper that this item appeared in the money section rather than on the front page. It would appear that the time frame for solar power technology to become competitive in terms of capital cost is shrinking rapidly. The rising costs of fossil fuel based technology due to political uncertainty is likely to hasten this process. The website of the firm involved is here.

Hat-tip to Ric for drawing this to my attention.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

What a marvellous future we are going to have!

It reminds me of that time in the 1950s when nuclear power was going to be so cheap that it would be inefficient to meter it, so we were going to get it free.

Tell me again how wonderful this is going to be. I must have mislaid my rose-coloured spectacles.

Peter Porcupine said...

Our future is potentially as good or as bad as our past I suspect. It will though be different to our present.

Kit said...

"The reality is that sooner or later the oil would run out."

Sorry to be picky but we will never run out of oil rather we shall switch to alternatives. At some price-point alternatives will become competitive. Eventually oil prices will decline to complete against these competitors.

With the wonder of the market we do not need to worry if it is wind, solar, nuclear, corn, or warp-drives. It will just happen (so long as governments don't distort the market - too late!).

Anonymous said...

After a lifetime's experience of measuring the difference between what is claimed technically and what actually happens I remain unimpressed when I read of a new breakthrough.

And when I see it is a newspaper article entirely written to push one product I get cynical. Does Mr Porcupine really believe that this Telegraph journalist is competent enough to uncover the snags in this piece of free advertising?

Peter Porcupine said...

An interesting range of comments. You could find an equally wide range of views being expressed c. 1770 on the efficacy of canals for transporting goods, also around the same date concerning the introduction of steam power. The advocates of the ICE also received a similarly mixed reception around the start of the 20th C.
I personally rather like the idea of solar power as it is one of the few technologies that holds out hope of power generation at the point of use. I suspect that for this reason alone, research investment is likely to be curtailed. All the major companies associated with power generation and fuel supply enjoy a very cosy relationship with governments here and elsewhere. Power generated at point of use by the user is also unlikely to find favour with government due to the inability to tax it.

kinglear said...

Yes the world is warming up, but,as you say, probably not that much to do with us.
But the hysterics are out there. A normally sane housewife of my acquaintance shouted at me for 20 minutes for suggesting that Al Gore was a political cynic who has used a bandwagon to try to revive his non-existent political career